Michael Knights: The combination of US airpower and Iraqi/Kurdish ground forces is highly effective and ISIL is suffering heavy losses and losing ground
September 18, 2014
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Knights: The new strategy has been trialed in a couple of places: Mosul Dam, the defense of Irbil, Makhmour, Amerli, and now Haditha. The combination of US airpower and Iraqi/Kurdish ground forces is highly effective and ISIL is suffering heavy losses and losing ground. The US-Iraq-KRG alliance may now quickly clear ISIL from the borders of Kurdistan and re-open Iraqi government control of the Euphrates, Tigris, Diyala and Udaim river valleys. Then the next challenge is Syria.
We must watch closely for ISIL changing its tactics: I suspect ISIL will intensify its efforts to punish the Kurds by sending car bombs to Erbil and Sulaymaniyah. The Kurdish counter-terrorism forces will be critical in defeating this threat. ISIL will likewise try to make terrorist outrages in Karbala and Najaf and southern Iraq during Ashura and Arbaeen late in the year.
Gulan: Main basis for the success of Obama’s strategy is the success of the newly formed Iraqi government headed by Haidar Al-Abadi. In your view, how far can this new government satisfy Kurds and Sunnis in order to unite the country in the anti-terrorism war?
Knights: Many Kurds are skeptical that PM Abadi can be different from Maliki; this is understandable as the Kurds suffered a lot under Maliki and Abadi is from the same Daawa party. But I think Abadi is different from Maliki, at a personal and professional level. I have spoken with them both, and they are completely different in terms of their ability to make smart deals. Maliki promises everything but delivered nothing: Abadi is cautious about what he offers. To the Kurds this looks like he is holding back, but I think it is a sign that he is not going to offer anything he can’t deliver. And that is a better way to begin.
Abadi will offer the Sunnis a greater say in recruiting and operating their own local national Guard security forces, like they have been in Anbar for years. He will offer the Kurds revenue-sharing in exchange for exporting Kurdish oil in a joint arrangement with the federal government.
Gulan: President Obama made it clear that the Sunni Arabs in Iraq have to reach the conclusion that they have to fight ISIL, and for that he is going to need the help of Arabic countries especially Saudi Arabia. To what extent will Saudi Arabia be helping U.S. in encouraging Iraqi Sunnis to fight ISIL?
Knights: I don’t think Saudi Arabia will help a great deal in Iraq: their influence will be more felt in Syria, where they will train opposition forces.
Gulan: According to the strategy, the Iraqi army and Peshmarga forces should be fully armed and be trained for fighting ISIL. Do you think that these forces alone on the ground can change the equation of power?
Knights: See number 1. The combination of US airpower and Iraqi/Kurdish ground forces is highly effective and ISIL is suffering heavy losses and losing ground.
Gulan: There seems to have 40 countries take part in the strategy as allies, but only 10 of them have been solemnly disclosed. But still the position of two important countries is unclear, which are Turkey and Britain. To what extent is it important to have a wide range of Turkish and Britain participation in this war?
Knights: Both countries face domestic resistance to taking part as a combat force. British people feel they were led into Iraq by the Americans in 2003 and they are sensitive now: the British parliament backed away from striking Assad when he used chemical weapons in 2013, reducing American willingness to strike. My sense is that this time Britain will strike.
Turkish has the same resistance to being involved in strikes but has the additional factor of the 49 Turkish diplomats held by ISIL and the strong ISIL presence in Turkey, which could begin attacking Turkey, damaging its investment and tourism climate.
Gulan: The important point is striking ISIL basis in Syria, for which Obama has also decided to strike them in Syria as well. So do you think this can happen without cooperation with Syria or will Obama rely on Free Syrian Army? If Obama depends on FSA, to what extent will fighting ISIL turn into a war for toppling Assad’s regime, too?
Knights: The Obama administration is clear that they will not work with Assad and will develop the FSA as their ally. All efforts will be made to strike ISIL in ways that benefit the FSA and the Syrian Kurdish PYD/YPG, whilst giving the minimum advantage to Assad. It will be an extremely complicated challenge.
