Gulan: As the west is concerned about the war in Iraq, Da’esh is about to create emirates in Iraq and Maliki is now acting as a dictator. In your opinion, what do you think Iraq is heading to?

Dodge: I think everything depends on the elections on the end of April. If they are free and fair, then Maliki’s attempt to curb the democratic overthought on his regime will be in doubt. If the elections are not free and fair, then the prime minister may well survive in power and go on to further centralize the control of the state in his hands.

Gulan: Our concern is that the government has taken control on army, police, intelligence, and budget without returning to parliament. How does it question sovereignty of rule of law?

Dodge: I think the rule of law has always been shaky in Iraq since 2003 and obviously before. The court is in a dreadful state and the political interference with the judicial process in the highest level is obvious. The last set of elections in 2010, although there were problems with them, functioned fairly. So if the same thing happens in April, then you could see a possible return to a more rule-abiding ruler-ship.

Gulan: following the withdrawal of American troops in 2011, Iraq is completely ignored by Americans and has kept silence even towards human rights violation in Iraq. Do you think America is left Iraq behind without returning to it?

Dodge: I think there is no appetite in the highest ranks of the American government or across the American population to do anything much in Iraq. I think the toll of the invasion and its aftermath has left the American population and the American rule and elite very averse in new Iraq policy.

Gulan: the relations between the KRG and the central government are currently halted. President Barzani stated that it will be better not having relations with a government that boycotted parliament. What are your expectations and recommendations in this regard?

Dodge: this is very important. I think the Kurdish Regional government, president Massoud Barzani, and his prime minister have very influential role to play in the negotiations after the April elections. What I would like president Barzani to state clearly and in public is to refuse to support another term as prime minister by Nuri Al-Maliki. President Barzani has not said that. If president Barzani struck a deal with Nuri Al-Maliki after the elections, then president Barzani would be as responsible as Nuri Al-Maliki for the continuing problems in Iraq. What president Barzani should do is really hard to find a new prime minister after the April election.
Gulan: in a conference at IISS about your book Iraq: From War to a New Authoritarianism that we have published part of it in Gulan Magazine in Kurdish, you have mentioned that Maliki has been gathering authority since 2006. So why is Maliki becoming a dictator and why this is happening in Iraq over and over?

Dodge: Maliki is not yet a dictator but the signs aren’t good and the centralization of power in the office as the prime minister has had very negative effects. I think in the mediate aftermath of regime change, after the state collapse, and after the power defused, what Maliki did in sideline the legal restraints of his power and the mass central control of his own office. This is why these next elections are crucial. If Maliki survives, then he will probably behave as a dictatorship. So these set of elections are the most important elections Iraq has faced since 2003.

Gulan: do you expect changes in the next election?
Dodge: I think it is largely up to the president Barzani. President Barzani has the power to make sure Maliki is not the next prime minister.

Gulan: the Erbil agreement put veto to Maliki’s authorities and to share power with the Sunnis by creating consultant council for Iiad Allawi, but it did not happen. So why couldn’t Iraqis gather at that time enough votes in parliament in 2012 for the no confidence vote for taking back confidence from Maliki, and how far Iran pressured Sadir, and United States kept silent?

Dodge: I think Jalal Talabani was a key figure in making sure that no-confidence vote didn’t work. So you are right the US did not back it, the Iranians moved against it, but also Jalal Talabani in alliance with the Iranians moved against it. I think now the Erbil agreement that is negotiated by Massoud Barzani and resulted in Nuri Al-Maliki serving another term as prime minister, I would hope that Massoud Barzani realized the mistake he made in negotiating the Erbil Agreement and doesn’t do that mistake again.

Gulan: recently after killing of the journalist who was working in Independent Iraqi Radio, instead of following the law, Maliki claimed for revenge saying “blood for blood”, which means going back to jungle rule. On the other hand, Kurdistan Region Presidency in a statement hoped for resolving the issue by law, and he also stated “The people of Kurdistan have decided to live in a peaceful and fraternal way within Iraq. If Baghdad rulers don’t want this fraternity, and repeatedly create problems using various excuses, then let us sit down and end this problematic relationship.” What is your view on this?

Dodge: I think it is up to the population of the Kurdish regional government if they want to push for independence, and if Massoud Barzani wants it negotiated, he will give good luck to them. The problem will be going because Kurdistan is land blocked and military is not as strong as its neighbors but there is a danger that Erbil will trade a repressive relationship with Baghdad for a repressive relationship with Ankara. So when Kurdish people wants to become allied with Ankara instead of Baghdad, being dominated by Turkey instead of Iraq, that may not be a sensible thing to do given the current direction of Turkish politics, it is not straight forward.
Gulan: but our concern as Kurdish people is that how international politics will be welcoming such a decision by Kurdish people?

Dodge: I think if the Kurdish regional government negotiate independence from Baghdad, take it from the international organizations like the United Nations, and have democratic transparency in a free and fair plebiscite referendum, then I think they could get the support of the international community. However, it is not the international community that really matters, but it is Turkey and Turkish internal politics, as you know, is very uncertain at the moment. So you could have an outcome that the Turks don’t encourage, but in fact, trying to be against Kurdish independence and really a line with Baghdad to squeeze the Kurdish regional government. This is something that could happen if there is a change of government in Ankara.

Gulan: how do you see the future of Iraq?

Dodge: I think all depends on the elections. If there is a new prime minister in Baghdad after the election, that all the mistakes and problems that have occurred in Iraqi politics since 2003 can be renegotiated, that the Kurdish regional government can get a more balanced relationship with Baghdad, that the oil law can be negotiated, that the division of revenues and democratic oversight, parliamentary oversight over the military can be put in place. That would be a wonderful outcome. However, if the elections result in another term and government of Nuri Al-Maliki, I think there is a danger that Iraq will head back to civil war, and the KRG will be forced to split after discrete itself in Baghdad and this creates more violence, corruption, and instability.

Kurdish people and especially president Massoud Barzani should work very hard to make sure that another prime minister replaces Nuri Al-Maliki after the April election. That is their best hope for peace and security in KRG.