Murat Somer to Gulan:Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan Accused Baghdad of Dragging Iraq into Civil War
January 3, 2013
Exclusive Interviews
Murat Somer is an Associate Professor of International Relations at Koç University specializing in comparative politics, political economy and Turkish politics. He writes on ethnic conflicts and nationalism, democratization, religious and secular politics, the Kurdish question, and political Islam. His research has been published in numerous book volumes and academic journals. Currently, he is working on two books, one on the Kurdish question and the other on the relationship between Muslim and secular elite values and democracy.We contacted the Professor Somer to discuss the current status of the Kurdish question and the possibilities in solving the question, and we also discussed Turkey’s position towards Kurdistan Region. The Professor Somer replied to Gulan Magazine’s questions in an exclusive interview as the following:The situation of Iraq is heading towards sectarian and national civil war, which is directly related to the policy of the Prime Minister, Nuri Al-Maliki. According to your opinion; to what extent will civil war endanger the future of Iraq?
- A civil war would endanger the interests of all Iraqis and destroy their political and economic gains in recent years. The situation is precarious and can lead to a war. But I think a war is still unlikely. This is because all the domestic and external actors with stakes in Iraqi affairs continue to have an interest in maintaining Iraq’s unity. Unless this situation changes and one of these actors decides that it can gain from war and disintegration, I think they will try to avoid an ultimate fallout. Despite growing tensions, they will make concessions to prevent a civil war. But this situation can change depending on developments in Syria and Iran.
Iraq has a very democratic constitution on paper, which is yet to be implemented. There are important unresolved issues regarding checks and balances and the distribution of power, territory and natural resources between the central and regional governments. Currently, Prime Minister Maliki’s policies create a lot of controversy, tensions and distrust between his government, its opponents and the KRG. Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan has accused Baghdad of dragging Iraq into civil war. But Turkey has also made some well-meaning mistakes before the last elections, which contributed to this situation. I don’t think that Turkey ever intended to support sectarian politics in Iraq, but it was perceived so by some. Turkey also should have had better dialogue with the Kurds before the election.
Parliamentary democracies resolve political crises through early elections. If it becomes impossible for the Maliki government to resolve the problems with the opposition and the KRG peacefully and through non-sectarian politics, there should be new elections and a new government with a new mandate should resolve these problems. Or maybe they would compromise to avoid elections. Actors may not agree on how to resolve these issues but they may be able to agree on the process. This way democracy can work and maintain Iraq’s unity. But a preconditon for the elections to work is that there should be fewer political parties. Actors with similar views should unite. With this level of fragmentation, no new government can resolve the pressing problems of corruption and legistative gridlocks.
Turkey is worried about tension in Iraq, Mr. Erdogan has warned the Iraqi prime minister regarding the ethnic and sectarian war in Iraq. In your view please; what role can Turkey play within this situation of Iraq?
- Turkey should support Iraq’s present constitution and unity without giving the appearance of taking sides in sectarian politics.
- Iraqi Kurdistan region is a direct neighbour to Turkey and there is a huge economic and trading interest between Turkey and Kurdistan region. Iraqi government is about to create some problems for this region. According to your view; to what extent will Turkey be supporting Kurdistan region during this crisis with the central government?
- Turkey has an interest in both Iraq’s territorial unity and building mutually beneficial and interdependent relations with the KRG. It will try to protect these interests and it will try to do so by acting together with its international allies and alliances. A major problem is that Turkey and the US do not see eye to eye the situation in Iraq and Iran. So the US perspective and policy are also crucial for both the KRG and Turkey.
The other factor is Turkey’s domestic Kurdish question. Unless Turkey resolves its domestic Kurdish question, the extent to which any Turkish government can support the Kurdistan region would be affacted by the PKK factor, regardless of the government’s intentions.
The Iraqi Kurdistan region is exporting Oil and Gas through Turkey and some of those companies working in Kurdistan region and Turkish companies. If tension is created between Kurdistan region and Baghdad, to what extent will problems be created within oil transmission through Turkey?
- Turkey’s growing economic relations with the Iraqi Kurdistan region is benefiting both sides and can also help Turkey to find a long-term peaceful resolution to its own Kurdish question. But Turkey’s interests with the KRG are political and economic as well as security-related. Turkey expects cooperation from the KRG in its fight against the PKK. I think there would not be any problem as long as the two sides continue to work together on this issue.
5- According to observers the Syrian problem is heading towards the end especially after the change of Russian position towards Syria. But, still the Iraqi government is supporting Assad\'s regime, and Kurdistan region is supporting the Syrian people. To what extent will the unity among the positions of Turkey and Kurdistan region towards Syria have an impact on the changes in the future?
- Not only Baghdad, but also Iran is continuing to support the Assad regime. What will happen in Syria can easily spread to and destabilize Iraq and the rest of the region. I think the war in Syria can only be resolved by taking a multilateral approach. The solution should also take into account the interests of all regional powers and provide an exit strategy for Assad and his regime. This does not excuse any crimes against humanity but we need to be realistic to avoid even further bloodshed and suffering.
The Kurdish question needs more democratic steps in order to resolve it democratically. But as we see Turkey is not taking serious steps for resolving this issue and has minimized the problem only to PKK. The question is: why doesn\'t the Turkish government take serious steps in order to cut the blames of PKK and get disarmed?
- There are four reasons. First, Prime Minister Erdoğan doesn’t trust the BDP and the PKK because he blames them for the failure of the Oslo talks and the “democratic opening” in 2009. It is also politically risky for him to take any bold steps vis-a-vis the Kurdish issue before the upcoming presidential elections in 2014 because this might alienate Turkish nationalist voters.
Second, the Turkish elite are still intellectually unprepared to face the Kurdish demands. Unlike the 1990s, they recognize the Kurdish identity and are ready to accept cultural rights but they are not ready to imagine any political rights. In fact, nobody knows exactly how the Kurdish demands can be met. I think what Kurds really want is to have a say in their own affairs “as Kurds” i.e. with their own institutions and identity. But nobody knows how this can work in a unitary state and without weakening the Turkish national identity. It is possible, but there is need for trust and creative legal and institutional solutions.
Third, domestic politics are polarized. The AKP cannot solve the Kurdish issue on its own but it is at loggerheads with all opposition parties for reasons unrelated to the Kurdish issue. The main opposition party CHP has a leftist ideology similar to that of the BDP, but it is hard for them to cooperate because they think very differently on the Kurdish issue and the PKK. There is need for more pragmatism and issue-based coalitions.
Fourth, the external environment is very changeable. Turkey fears that developments in Syria might strengthen the PYD and the PKK.