Stuart J. Kaufman is professor of political science and international relations at the University of Delaware. Dr. Kaufman taught at the University of Kentucky from 1990 to 2004. He spent 1999 working as director for Russian, Ukrainian, and Eurasian affairs on the U.S. National Security Council staff. Dr. Kaufman specializes in ethnic conflict, international security affairs, and international relations history, and he is the author of two award-winning books on nationalism and ethnic conflict, Nationalist Passions (2015) and Modern Hatreds (2001). Dr. Kaufman’s other honors include a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs fellowship, a Fulbright scholarship, and an Excellence in Scholarship award from the University of Delaware College of Arts and Sciences. Additionally, Dr. Kaufman was coeditor of The Balance of Power in World History (2007), and he has published dozens of articles in a wide array of scholarly journals. Dr. Kaufman earned his B.A. (1983) from Harvard University, and his M.A. (1985) and Ph.D. (1991) from the University of Michigan. In a written interview he answered our questions as the following:

Gulan:  What are the new priorities in U.S. diplomacy under the Trump administration, and how do they reflect the changing global order?

Professor Dr. Stuart J. Kaufman: Trump’s main foreign policy priorities throughout his career have been trade and immigration.  On immigration, his focus is on pressuring Mexico and Central American countries to cooperate in preventing new illegal immigration and to accept people he chooses to deport.  He is also placing a heavy emphasis on gaining more effective Mexican cooperation in fighting the trafficking of illegal drugs. Regarding trade, Trump has always defined “winning” in international relations as maintaining trade surpluses (of which the U.S. has very few).  This seems to be what prompted his lament in 2016 that “we never win anymore.”  Trump’s favorite tool for pursuing American trade interests is to impose tariffs.  His top targets for these tariffs so far have been the U.S.’s biggest trading partners—China, Canada and Mexico. Trump has also spoken about an interest in territorial expansion: he has said he wants to acquire Greenland and Gaza and to retake the Panama Canal Zone.  It is too soon to say whether he will persist with pursuing these goals, which he is unlikely to accomplish. A final Trump priority, also of long standing, is to improve U.S. relations with Russia.  This is part of his motivation for his heavy pressure tactics against Ukraine.  He is likely to pursue a summit meeting with Vladimir Putin.

Gulan: What changes in the U.S.-Russia relationship have occurred under the new Trump administration, and how are they impacting global security dynamics, especially with regard to Russia-Ukraine war?

Professor Dr. Stuart J. Kaufman: Trump’s policy seems to be to adopt Russia’s position on a range of matters.  This is most clearly illustrated by his blaming Ukraine for having been invaded by Russia, and his calling Ukrainian President Zelensky a dictator.  Trump is also reducing U.S. economic, humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine, possibly with an eye toward ending it entirely.  Of course, Trump also decided to humiliate Zelensky by inviting him to the White House, imposing degrading demands on him, then verbally abusing him and throwing him out of the White House.  Russian officials have publicly celebrated all of these moves.

In taking these actions, Trump is engaging in the most abject appeasement of an aggressive dictator since the British and French appeasement of Hitler in 1938.  He is starting the process of surrendering the core of America’s geopolitical position—its previously unquestioned alliance bond with its NATO partners.  Without the American commitment, NATO is reduced to its European core, but Europe lacks the military capabilities to achieve meaningful security even for its own eastern wing (especially the Baltic states), let alone for Ukraine.  This will not lead to peace, but to an ever-more-brutal Russian war on Ukraine aimed at its total subjugation.  Putin will then make further demands on a cowed Europe.  All of this is a stunning defeat for American interests and an enormous victory for the forces of tyranny and aggression led by Vladimir Putin. Some commentators believe that Trump is actually going further than this, and is joining in Putin’s predation on Europe.  In this scenario, Putin ends up dominating Eastern Europe, and the U.S. takes Greenland—obviously a one-sided outcome in which the only winner is Putin.

Gulan: How has the Trump administration's "America First" policy influenced its international trade agreements and partnerships?

Professor Dr. Stuart J. Kaufman: Trump seems to believe he is working to remedy the U.S. trade deficit, but he is actually in the process of destroying the system of global trade based on the World Trade Organization and its rules.  The WTO system was already badly weakened by China’s flouting of its rules, on the one hand, and by Trump’s and Biden’s policy of blocking the ability of the WTO’s enforcement mechanism to work.  A rational U.S. trade policy would involve building a broad international coalition against China’s unfair trade practices.  Trump is not doing that.  Instead, he is simultaneously trying to bully American allies, threatening them with even higher tariffs than he is imposing on China.  He has repeated that he will initiate 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4, and has threatened that U.S. partners in Europe are next.  The result is likely to be a trade war.  Since the U.S. is the largest importer in the world, this trade war will probably spread beyond other nations’ trade relations with the U.S., impacting also their trade with each other.  It seems to be a return to the “beggar thy neighbor” policies of the 1930s.

Gulan: What role does the Trump administration see for the U.S. in the Middle East, and will it lead to sustainable peace and stability in this region?

Professor Dr. Stuart J. Kaufman: If Trump is Putin’s lapdog in Europe, he is Netanyahu’s lapdog in the Middle East.  His first Mideast initiative was to try to do Israel’s dirty work by ethnically cleansing more than two million Palestinian people out of Gaza.  He seems to have backed off of this effort in the face of resistance from Egypt and Jordan.  He will likely continue to try to extend the “Abraham Accords,” again helping Israel (with no benefit to the U.S.) by trying to bribe Arab governments—especially Saudi Arabia’s—to normalize relations with Israel. Trump’s (and Netanyahu’s) other Mideast priority is Iran.  Trump will probably continue his trademark mixture of ineffective sanctions, exaggerated threats, and incompetent diplomacy aimed at ending Iran’s program of enriching uranium to levels approaching weapons grade.  I would not be surprised if he responded to the failure of these efforts by launching air and missile strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.