Baghdad has decided to delay the planned withdrawal of US forces, originally scheduled for September 2025, by at least three years due to mounting security challenges in the region, Iraqi sources revealed.

The announcement was made during Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s recent visit to Tehran, his third since assuming office in October 2022. Al-Sudani held meetings with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, during which he outlined the necessity of extending the US presence in Iraq.

Rationale for the Delay

According to sources accompanying al-Sudani, the Prime Minister cited escalating tensions in Syria as a key factor behind the decision. “Syria’s uncertain situation may develop into armed confrontations, posing potential security and military risks for Iraq,” an Iraqi official told Al-Ain al-Akhbariya.

The evolving security landscape prompted Baghdad to prioritize stability, delaying the timeline for transitioning the Coalition Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) operations.

In September 2024, the US and Iraq announced a two-phase transition plan to conclude certain coalition military operations in Iraq by 2025. However, the plan emphasized continued counter-ISIS operations from Iraq to address the persistent threat in Syria.

Iranian Opposition

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei criticized the decision, reaffirming his opposition to the US military presence in Iraq and urging Baghdad to strengthen the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) instead of disbanding them. He labeled the US presence as “illegal” and reiterated Tehran’s support for Shiite armed groups in Iraq.

During the meetings, Khamenei also sought assurances that US forces would not use Iraqi airspace to target Iran or its allies, expressing dissatisfaction with Baghdad’s position.

US-Iraq Security Partnership

Despite the Iranian opposition, al-Sudani has underscored the importance of maintaining US support to manage the ongoing ISIS threat and stabilize Iraq. Almost 2,500 US troops remain in Iraq as part of the coalition, with an additional 900 personnel stationed in Syria.

The US Department of Defense has reiterated its commitment to a long-term security relationship with Iraq, highlighting a decade of cooperation that led to ISIS’s territorial defeat in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria in 2019.

Balancing Regional and Domestic Pressures

The delay in US troop withdrawal reflects Iraq’s efforts to balance its international partnerships with domestic security needs. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has emphasized the importance of gradual troop reduction, suggesting Baghdad’s intent to manage regional alliances carefully.

The decision highlights Iraq’s ongoing struggle to navigate complex geopolitical pressures while ensuring internal stability amid persistent threats from ISIS and broader regional tensions.