Prof. OfraBengioLecturer at the Department for Middle Eastern and African History, Senior Research Fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and AfricanStudies, Tel Aviv University, Israel. Fields of specialization: contemporary Middle Eastern history, modern andcontemporary politics of Iraq, minorities, with special emphasis on the Kurds and theArabic languageIn an interview we have discussed the recent developments in Iraq and Kurdistan region particularly with her, and the interview is like the following:

• First of all, how do you characterize what happened after conducting the independence referendum in Kurdistan region in October 16?



Answer: This is one of the worst setbacks in the Kurdistan Region's history. The KRG lost control of all the disputed territories and Baghdad shut down the two airports which were the KRG's window to the outside world while it continued to put pressure to bear on the region economically, militarily and politically. Three factors combined together to bring about the KRG's sudden collapse: Kurdish domestic factors, the tripartite alliance between Iraq, Turkey and Iran and the negative stance of the international community. The lack of plan B for the post-referendum period made the sudden change all the more traumatic.



• As you know right now Kurdistan region is trying to pick itself up and dust itself of, what Kurdistan should and can do in this regard?





Answer: The government should act on different levels simultaneously in order to overcome the trauma. The most urgent task is to set right the Kurdish house, among others by conducting elections as soon as possible and certainly before the general Iraqi elections. Solving the economic crisis which had hit large parts of the Kurdish population is another urgent task lobbying for the Kurdish cause in the international community is critical at the present time when Baghdad had decided to turn Kurdistan back to the Saddam era. Such endeavor should be done by capable people and professionals, where the Kurdish diaspora can play an important role.





• Do you agree that since October 16, Iran has been able to cement its grip on Iraqi politics more tightly, if it is so, what are the implications of Iranian dominance over Iraq?



Answer: Iran emerged as the biggest winner from the latest developments. Not only did it manage to spread its influence all over Iraq but it also set its eyes on reaching the Mediterranean Sea via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. The main losers are the KRG which lost much of its balancing power vis-a-vis Baghdad; the central government in Baghdad which lost its independence and became a kind of vassal for Tehran; and Turkey which by its ad hoc alliance with Iran lost influence in the KRG.More importantly its economic interests suffered a severe blow because Iran exploited the situation to increase its own interests at the expense of Ankara.



• Was the position of US administration, disappointing, or incomprehensible, regarding the events in October 16, given the fact all these happened after three days of the announcement of its new strategy for countering Iran?



Answer: The US administration is motivated by an idea fix according to which Iraq can and should be a unified state even though the last hundred years had proved that this artificial entity may be held together only by force of arms, violence and bloodshed. The American lack of understanding of Iraqi history was compounded by the fact that president Trump's threats against Iran might well have been the trigger for Iranian moveon the 16th October in an attempt to preempt possible American move against it. All in all, the US is another loser from the latest developments because it lost its popularity among the Kurds who see its move as a betrayal of them but it also lost its leverage in the central government which is beholden more to Iran, its close neighbor and mentor, rather than to the US.

• Recently the Prime minister of KRG was received some invitations to visit France and Germany and UK, how do you assess these visits, to what extent these international or European efforts will contribute positively to the resumption of negotiation between Kurdistan Region and Iraqi Government?



Answer: The Prime minister's visit to leading European countries are an important sign that these states have not abandoned the Kurds altogether. Still, whether we like it or not, the world is built on interests and the biggest task of the KRG nowadays is to convince these states and the world community as a whole that their interests lies in supporting a strong Kurdistan.Not because it can be a buffer against Iran, which it cannot, but because it may help balance the central government in Baghdad which has turned Iraq into a small replica of Iran. As to Prime Minister Abadi, he will do his utmost to squeeze further the KRG and bring it to its knees before he agrees to talk. Therefore, the KRG should prepare a plan B for such aneventuality and not just wait until he changes his stance.



• What is your expectation for the future of Kurdistan region?



Answer:Unlike many observers and analysts I am quite optimistic about the future of the Kurdish region. In spite of the latest traumatic events one should look at them in perspective and put them in the right proportions. Kurdistan was turned into a desert in 1988 but within short time it started to flourish again. Comparatively speaking the Kurdish region has kept its moral ground and managed to protect a nascent democracy with all the defects of a rentier state. Its future will depend on some important things: national cohesion, an economy which does not rely mainly on oil, social justice and the ability to make itself important to the world.