Professor Dr. OfraBengio is the Head of the Kurdish Studies Program at The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University.

Professor Dr. OfraBengio is the Head of the Kurdish Studies Program at The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, Tel Aviv University.

For assessing the implications of Mosul liberation operation and the future of Iraq after ISIS, as well as the prospect of fragmentation of Iraq, and the possibility of Kurdistan to be an internationally recognized independent state, we have conducted an interview with her, and she answered our questions as the following.


GULAN:How do you characterize the situation in Iraq and the Kurdistan region?

Professor OfraBengio: the situation is critical, the country is in a state of war, and nobody knows how it is going to end. It is a well- known fact that we know when wars start and how they start, but we never know how they end and what would be their results. For example, Saddam Husayn planned for a blitzkrieg but it ended in eight year war which wrought havoc to the country. The war which is outraging now is even more complicated and so is the role of the Kurds in it. The complication is due to the multiplicity of the players and the different agenda of each of them. On one level the inner circle includes the Kurds, the central government, the Sunnis, and various other forces and militias like the Popular Mobilization Forces (قواتالحشدالشعبي). The Kurds seek to end up with a Kurdish state, Baghdad wishes to go back to a unitary state and the Sunnis to regain their old status.

The second circle includes various regional players most important of which are Iran and Turkey each of which is trying to turn Iraq into their sphere of influence and to use the war on Mosul as a springboard for realizing their strategic goals. Iran hopes to form a Shi`I axis starting from Iran, via Mosul, Syria and Lebanon while Turkey wishes to send its forces either for fighting PKK or preventing the advance of the Shi`I power, or regain some influence among the Sunnis.

In the third circle we witness various international forces vying for influence the, leading of which are the US and Russia. In fact, the war against ISIS in Iraq and Syria has turned into a kind of cold war between the two powers where each of which is trying to contain the other and gain the upper hand in a turbulent Middle East.

GULAN:It is obvious that US administration has been intensifying its effort to defeat and dismantle ISIS militarily; this means that the next administration will face the task of restoring stability, so don’t you think that restoring peace and stability necessarily involves reshaping of the state-system in this region especially in Iraq and Syria?

Professor OfraBengio:I don’t think the United States would have the ability, the courage or the moral ground to reshape it. It is not going to be similar to the aftermath of World War One, when the two major Powers Britain and France could shape the region according to their own political ambitions. The United States still sticks to the idea of a unified Iraq and it has also to take into consideration the veto power of the Russians which will not let it do anything which could harm its interests or those of its clients in the region. So right now I do not think the US is considering seriously initiating drastic changes to Sykes-picot map. So far the Americans did not promise or declare anything which has to do with support for an independent Kurdistan. Still it must be stressed that their deeds on the ground helped indirectly the Kurds to promote their cause: They helped build their autonomy after the 1991 Gulf War and even more so after the 2003 Iraqi War. Therefore the results of the present war and the new map of the region will depend to a great extent on how the Kurds act on the ground and how they play their cards vis-à-vis the US and the other forces which are taking part in the war.

GULAN:Now the Mosul liberating operation has been launched, and everybody talks about the defeating ISIS and the Iraq after ISIS, but what will happen if the military victory is not followed by an agreed upon governance structure, or a comprehensive political accommodation, and what international community can and should do in this regard?

Professor OfraBengio:First of all, I wouldn’t pin too much hope on the international community, the region is so unstable and it will continue to be destabilized for long time, why? Because, these problems wouldn’t be solved by retaking of Mosul, the basic problem is the division between Sunnis and Shiites. The Sunnis were the rulers of the land for hundreds of years and all of a sudden they were dismantled from all their powers and became the underdogs. So the revisionist tendency will continue to spur their actions for long time to come and they will continue to fight in order to regain what they had lost. For this reason it is improbable that an outside force will be able to solve this deep problem and change the balance of power once again between Sunnis and Sh`is.

GULAN:The Mosul offensive is not over yet, but there are concerns about the regional intervention and meddling in the domestic affairs of Iraq, so if Turkey and Iran involved in the internal conflicts of Iraq, don’t you think that fuel the sectarian struggle between Shiite and Sunni and Iraq will face a new round of turmoil and instability in the future?

Professor OfraBengio:The meddling of these and other forces will certainly deepen the Sunni-Shi`I divide and with it the sectarian and ethnic struggle in Iraq and Syria. The multiple struggles includes the religious, political, economic and cultural dimensions hence its complexity. The more external powers deepen their involvement the more it will be difficult to solve these issues.

GULAN:So we can say that Iraq will face a new round of turmoil and instability in the future?

Professor OfraBengio:I am not a prophet, but from assessing the situation on the ground, I think it is going to be very difficult to solve these problems; outside powers cannot solve these problems. So if the three parties in Iraq are able to solve them by themselves, there is a chance for some stability. Just look anywhere in the world: Were the USA or the UN able to solve any problem? They try, may be they try hard and have even good intentions but they cannot do it. So if the Kurds want to solve their problems, they should ask for support, but they should rely mainly on their own will, their own way, their own force, their own ideas, and their own vision.

GULAN:Do you agree that Iran is taking advantage on the turmoil situation of the region to further its influence and to consolidate its dominance?

Professor OfraBengio:Yes, exactly. What we are seeing, especially since the nuclear agreement with Iran, is that all of a sudden this country has become a regional power trying to overreach to Iraq, to Yemen, to Syria, to other places. In my opinion the nuclear agreement has negative implications on the Middle East in the sense that it gave Tehran the upper hand and turned it into the hegemon in the region.

GULAN: Do you agree that one of the consequences of the war against ISIS was the erosion of confidence among Kurds and Shiite and Sunni, that mad taking confidence-building measures among these components almost impossible and only way out is division of this country?

Professor OfraBengio:The domestic problems are hundreds of years old with the Sunni-Shi`I strife beginning in the seventh century. This strife has witnessed many ups and downs but the Shites are not going to forget about the Husain massacre in Karbala, and the Sunnis will not forget so easily that they were dislodged from power. Furthermore the Iranian involvement will deepen the divide between these two communities. Iran will strengthen its influence in the region, especially in Iraq, at least now they are influential in Samarra, Najaf and Karbala. This was their dream, and they can say that they have fulfilled it in the last few years. As for the Kurds, they have challenged the integrity of the Iraqi state from its very inception and now they have become a quasi –state by themselves. Accordingly, it can be argued that Iraq has become a failed state and could be wiser to accept as a fait accompli the division of the state.

GULAN:What are the prospects of Kurdistan Region to become an internationally recognized independent state, after ISIS, especially this region has been a capable and effective force against ISIS and will be able to preserve its stability after defeating this terrorist organization?

Professor OfraBengio:The rise of ISIS has contradictory effects on the Kurds. On the one hand it enabled them to take control of the disputed areas most importantly the oil rich Kirkuk region. It also gained them international visibility, acclaim as brave fighters and important power in the region. On the other hand, internally, unfortunately, there are many crises on the economic and socio-economic levels, on the internal cohesion of the society, and the friction between Brazani and Talabani and Goran etc. so in my opinion the main point is how the Kurds bring back the cohesion to the society and polity, if there is not a cohesion there is no a possibility for a state. Even if a Kurdish state is established and it lack internal cohesion it might become be like South Sudan which is a state but is suffering from internal war. So if the Kurds are united they can get support- even if now the American and other powers stick to the integrity and unitary state of Iraq which doesn’t exist of course. Therefore, if the Kurds want to progress further and take important step towards independence, they have to have cohesion, cohesion and cohesion.

GULAN:What is your opinion about the recent statement of Nuri Al Maliki the vice president and the former Iraqi prime minister, who accused the Kurds and president Barzani of taking advantages of the Iraqi situation?

Professor OfraBengio:I haven’t heard this statement, but all I can say is that it is part of the struggle for power between Maliki and Abadi. Abadi appears to be forthcoming with regard to Kurdish self- rule while Maliki is adamantly against it. With the support of Iran Maliki is trying to use the PUK and Goran in order to divide further the Kurdish camp and in this way to frustrate the plan for independence.

GULAN:Our final question is about the future of Mosul city, do you expect it will be divided or will it have an autonomous region like Kurdistan region?

Professor OfraBengio: No, I don’t think it will have autonomy, since the Sunnis will not be strong enough to build autonomy like the Kurds and the Shiite will not let them do so. I don’t think the region will be stabilized because if ISIS disappears another more extreme force will substitute them under a different name. First we had Al Qaida and then we have more extreme power which is ISIS, and maybe we will have more extreme power after ISIS, because the basic problem will remain there, and because vengeance is part and parcel of the world, may be not just in this part of the world, but especially in this part of the world. What is called in Arabic(الثأر ) vengeance, is playing an important role in what is happening, the Shiites are taking vengeance on hundreds of years of having been trodden by Sunnis, and the Sunnis, for their part, are in the same situation. Since the neighboring country – Syria- is not stable at all it will most probably have destabilizing effect on Iraq as well. We have seen it all the time, from the very beginning Assad supported Al Qaida in Syria then it came back to Iraq and then back from Iraq to Syria, and vice versa. The borders between the states are blurred, the nation-states are weakened, non-states actors are empowered all of which may preclude a solution to this troubled region, with or without the liberation of Mosul.