Gulan: The fact about Islamic State of ISIS is that, it is not about their being powerful, the issue is the weakness of regional countries from Pakistan to Nigeria as they cannot defeat terrorism on the ground. If the strategy of international coalition is to degrade and destroy terrorism, how the issue of failed and weak states can be resolved?
Serwer: This is the vital question. I see no plan at this point for how the issue of weak and failing states will be resolved. There is a real risk that military victory over IS will leave behind ungoverned spaces that will become havens for extremists, whether IS or other.


Gulan: Experts describe the regional situation of Middle East as “Lack of Order, Unraveling and resolving problems within the framework of Sykes-Picot”. If the world wants to bring back order to the area, to what extent it will have to re-shape state system in Middle East?

Serwer: I hope not at all. The Islamic State has come closer to restoring the Sykes Picot borders than destroying them, as Mosul was in the French mandate, not the British one. If the Islamic State is to be defeated, I imagine the borders will be restored, because anything other than that will lead to continuing war.

In my view, the current situation--lowered oil prices, the IS threat and the internal strife in Kurdistan--mean postponement of any hope of independence for Kurdistan. But fragmentation in Syria (not formal partition) is likely to continue for some time to come. I might say the same about Libya and Yemen, though there the risks of formal partition are greater.


Gulan: Saudi Arabia is leading the anti-IS campaign from military perspective on the regional level, but the statements of ISIS is also found in the schools and mosques of Saudi Arabia, as a result it cannot form a public supported decision to combat ISIS. According to your view; to what extent Sunni Arabic countries are facing internal resistance for taking the decision of combating ISIS?

Serwer: I don't hear of much internal resistance, in the Gulf or elsewhere. I think all are agreed that ISIS is a serious threat that needs to be defeated. Saudi Arabia definitely has an issue of internal coherence, but so far it does not appear to have caused hesitation in fighting ISIS. I'm not sure I could say exactly the same thing about Turkey, where Erdogan seems to have turned a blind eye to some extremist groups.


Gulan: In the Middle Eastern and European countries, emergence of Jihadist-Salafism (ISIS) has brought up people who are using the laws and system of democracy for protecting their terroristic ideologies, as a result; democratic countries themselves become guards and protectors of the terrorists. According to your view; how far democracy system requires re-defining in order to avoid the terrorists from exploiting the environment for their wills?

Serwer: Democratic countries require the rule of law. There is no room for groups that pursue political ends by violent means in a democracy. Violent jihadists in democratic countries are generally a law enforcement, not a military, problem.


Gulan: The whole region has been divided according to the sectarian division of Sunnis and Shiites, currently; Iran is using all its state power for exporting Shiite revolutionary and protecting the Shiite state systems in the area, like; Iraq, Syria, Southern Lebanon, Yemen and intervening in Bahrain, this division constitutes the basis of every conflict in the area. To what extent it is important to have Iran cooperate in bringing back stability to the area?

Serwer: I think there is no solution without Iran at the table, but there may also be no solution even if Iran is at the table. Iran needs to realize that its support for Hizbollah, Bashar al Assad and Shia militias in Iraq is causing sectarian polarization and producing conditions that enable ISIS to thrive. Iranian behavior is part of the problem right now, not part of the solution. But I see no sign of that realization in Tehran yet.


Gulan: Because of increasing conflicts between states like Saudi Arabia, Emirates, Egypt and Iran, and also Israel’s concern about Iranian nuclear program, we see that Sunni Arabic countries and Israel are having a common enemy which is Iran, to what extent do you expect to see Sunni countries and Israel in one frontline against Iran while the Palestine problem has not been resolved yet?

Serwer: The Sunni Arabs and Israel do share an interest in countering Iran. The Palestinian problem has been pushed lower down the priorities, not least because of the failure to find a solution. But I don't expect the Arabs to ignore Palestine entirely for forever. If nothing else, their "street" will not allow it. Israel needs to come up with a way of convincing Arabs that Palestinians both within Israel and in the West Bank and Gaza will be treated fairly.