Marina Ottaway works on issues of political transformation in the Middle East and Gulf security. A long-time analyst of the formation and transformation of political systems, she has also written on political reconstruction in Iraq, the Balkans, and African countries. Ottaway is an expert in civil society, democracy, political reform, non-governmental actors, foreign and humanitarian aid, human rights, Islamist movements, the Middle East, Iraq, and Africa.We contacted the Professor Ottaway to discuss Mr. Masoud Barzani’s visit, the President of Kurdistan Region, to Washington, and she replied to our questions in an exclusive interview to Gulan Magazine as the following:

* Since the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, it is the first time that United States invites Barzani to white house, this is while Iraq is passing through a very delicate and fragile situation. According to your opinion: what is the importance of Barzani's visit to white house and how do you interpret the visit?
- I think Washington is very concerned about what is happening in Iraq, the tensions that exist between the central government and the Kurdistan regional government, and wants to make sure to talk to president Barzani in the hope of calming down the situation.

* All the expected bad scenarios, for Iraq after the withdrawal of US forces, are happening and the political process is tremendously in danger. To what extend this situation of Iraq is threatening the future of the country and the whole area?
- I think the United States is very aware of the role that Kurdistan played, the Kurds have been ally to the United States, and Kurdistan has been the least troubled region at the time the rest of Iraq was very troubled. At the same time; I think it is important for the Kurds to remember that the United States wants Kurdistan to remain part of Iraq. In other words; when the president Barzani gave his Newroz speech against Baghdad that he said “the Republic of Kurdistan”, the United States became very alarmed because the United States is convinced that it is not in the interests of the United States for Kurdistan to separate itself from Iraq. So; I don’t think the United States would support the idea of the independence of Kurdistan.

* Currently Prime Minister, Nuri Al-Maliki, shares conflict with Allawi on one hand and with Kurdistan region on the other hand. The reason refers to ignoring the agreement which has shaped the Iraqi government and everyone describes Maliki as Authoritarian. Do you think if Maliki turns to become dictator and autocrat there will be sectarian war and violence in Iraq?
- I think the United States is going to do every think it can to prevent the secession of Kurdistan; the United States really does not want that to happen. If it were to happen I think in the long run most countries, including the United States, will accept the reality. But certainly that’s not going to be happened easily, and there will be a lot of resistance in the United States. I think there would be a lot of diplomatic efforts to try to convince the Kurds to not secede, or perhaps to agree to join with Iraq again if they had taken that decision already. It has been a very firm point in the U. S. policy in not to support the secession of Kurdistan.

* Iraqis have already passed through the undesired experience of Saddam Hussein's dictatorship. We all know that dictatorship can only rule in Iraq through using force and oppressing the different elements of the country. So, to what extend there is the risk of dictatorship taking place in Iraq again?
- It certainly will not intervene militarily; I don’t think there is any chance that the United States will send troops back to Iraq. I think the United States will continue to try to exert the diplomatic efforts to see if the dialogue between Iraq and Kurdistan can be continue and come to a good solution. But at this point; I think there would be continuing resistance on the part of the United States to accept the independence of Kurdistan, and I think the invitation of the president Barzani needs to be seen in the context of U. S. interests in putting pressure on Kurdistan to remain as a part of Iraq, at the same time as the United States will put some pressure on Maliki to reopen the dialogue and to back down from the positions that are causing crisis. I don’t think that the United States will succeed frankly, but that is certainly going to be the U. S. policy.

* The relations between Kurds and Baghdad are collapsing, Kurds have already made it clear that they no longer accept the autocracy and dictatorship of Maliki, and have also asked for returning back to dialogue and implementing constitution as soon as possible, but Maliki is not likely to do that. If the third aspect does not get involved, how long Kurds can go further with Iraq?
- There are parts of the constitution that are being ignored, of course on the issue the Article 140 on Kirkuk has been ignored all along, other parts of the constitution have not been ignored; the autonomy of the Kurdish region has been respected so far. The United States is extremely reluctant to see the partition of Iraq, let me add that it is not just Iraq, it is always the U. S. policy to resist the brake-up of a country, and the only time when the United States didn’t resist of the brake-up of a country was when the Soviet Union broke-up after the fallout of the socialist regime, it was the only time, that I know, the United States accepted the partition of a country. There will be continuing resistance to the partition of Iraq. I’m not saying whether this is right or wrong, but it is just what I know about the U. S. policy and that leads me to that conclusion.

* There is the probability that if Maliki doesn't resolve the problems, Kurds, Sunnis and part of Shiite will withdraw from the government. But some observers think that, even if Kurds and Sunnis withdraw from the government but Maliki will not step down from the authority. So, don't you think that Iraqi political process will fail if Kurds and Sunnis withdraw from the government?
- If Maliki tries to deprive Kurdistan of its autonomy the United States would be very critical, that does not mean that they should intervene on the side of Kurdistan. You have to remember that the American public is very tired of wars in the Middle East; the war in Iraq, the war in Afghanistan, and there is now the threat of a war against Iran. I think the chance that we send troops into Iraq to help Kurdistan at this point is practically non-existence.

* All the probabilities lead us to pessimistic outcomes. To what extend the failure of the Iraq will harm US interests in the Area and how far United States are prepared to intervene so as to resolve the problem?
- The most important thing now in terms of the long term stability of the area and what helps is what happens in Syria, because if the Bashar Assad's regime in Syria collapses – which I think it will sooner or later, I don’t think it is going to happen in the next few months, but I think it is about to happen – that will weaken the position of Iran, and I think it might force Iraq to reconcile with the Sunni states in the Arab world, and I think that in the long term they will improve the ability of the region. For the time being; it is going to be a very unstable situation because Iran is going to try to continue exercise an influence in Iraq, and it is going to exercise its influence in the entire area, and as a result we will remain quiet isolated from the Sunni countries in the region.

* Last Question: If Maliki doesn’t resolve the problems Kurds, Sunni’s and part of sheet’s will withdraw from the government but some observers think that even if Kurd’s and Sunnis withdraw from the government Maliki will not step down from authority so, don’t you think that Iraqi political process will fail if Kurds and Sunnis withdraw from government?
- I agree that could happen, but even if that happens I don’t think that we will see an American intervention.
Last Word: Well; I hope that Kurdistan will be able to maintain its autonomy, I’m not sure that the independence would be a wise move at this point, but certainly it is important that Kurdistan maintain its independency.

Transcription: Mahmud Samih