The elections will be held under the Sainte-Laguë system, which was last used in 2018 and abolished in 2020.

The system divides the country into 18 single-seat constituencies, making it difficult for smaller political parties to compete.

The announcement could re-energise the protest movement, which is firmly opposed to the system.

The restoration of the older system has drawn condemnation from smaller parties, some of which emerged in the wake of the 2019 protest movement.

Iraq's government has announced that provincial elections will be held on December 18, marking a significant moment in the country's political landscape. These elections are highly anticipated as they will be conducted under a contentious electoral system, previously used in 2018 but abolished in 2020 to appease a nationwide protest movement.

The reintroduction of the Sainte-Laguë electoral system by the parliament in March has sparked heated debates, with small opposition parties expressing strong opposition. Even influential Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr has frozen his political bloc's involvement in politics due to his opposition to the system.

Iraq has not conducted provincial elections since 2013, largely due to the challenges posed by the rise and fall of ISIS, the COVID-19 pandemic, and political disputes. However, the announcement of the upcoming elections could reignite the protest movement, which staunchly opposes the reintroduction of the Sainte-Laguë system.

Under this system, the country will be divided into 18 single-seat constituencies, creating obstacles for smaller political parties to compete on a province-wide basis. In contrast, a 2021 law enacted by former Prime Minister Mustafa Al Kadhimi had divided Iraq into 83 constituencies, enabling smaller parties to mobilize locally and confounding their adversaries. Notably, this included the Iran-backed Fatah bloc, which is now part of the Co-ordination Framework—a bloc supportive of Prime Minister Al Sudani.

The system implemented by Al Kadhimi also favored the Sadrist bloc led by Moqtada Al Sadr, who skillfully organized his followers in the smaller constituencies. However, Al Sadr withdrew his MPs from parliament in June of the previous year, protesting against what he deemed a corrupt and unconstitutional effort by his rivals in the Co-ordination Framework to nullify his electoral gains and impede his government formation.

The subsequent vacant parliamentary seats were mostly occupied by Iran-linked parties, leaving smaller independent parties with only a few seats in the 329-member assembly.

Prime Minister Al Sudani's supporters managed to pass the new electoral law during a contentious parliamentary session on March 27. Independent candidates expressed their displeasure with the law and were escorted out of the assembly by security forces.

The reforms initially introduced by Al Kadhimi were partially in response to the nationwide protest movement, primarily targeting Iran-linked parties. Unfortunately, the movement was brutally suppressed, resulting in over 600 deaths.

The restoration of the previous electoral system, approved by parliament in March, has faced condemnation from smaller parties that emerged following the 2019 protest movement.

The upcoming provincial elections hold great significance for Iraq's political future, as they will test the impact of the controversial Sainte-Laguë system and potentially shape the composition of the provincial governments. The outcome will likely have far-reaching implications for the country's stability and governance.

Analysis

The announcement of the election date is a significant development, as it could re-energise the protest movement and lead to a boycott of the elections by smaller parties.

The restoration of the Sainte-Laguë system is seen as a victory for the Iran-backed Co-ordination Framework, which is supportive of Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al Sudani.

The system is likely to benefit the larger parties, such as the Fatah bloc and the Sadrist bloc, at the expense of smaller parties.