Critics Concerned about Potential Extension of Erdogan's Rule

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged as the frontrunner in the country's presidential runoff after securing a significant lead over his opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the initial round. Erdogan's strong performance has defied opinion polls and has left the opposition in a challenging position. As the results pour in, many are anxious about the implications of Erdogan's potential third decade in power and the continuation of Turkey's increasingly authoritarian trajectory, assertive foreign policy, and unorthodox economic governance.

In the first round held on May 14, Erdogan, 69, secured a nearly five-point advantage over Kilicdaroglu, but fell just shy of the 50% threshold required to avoid a runoff. This runoff race holds profound consequences for both Turkey's internal dynamics and global geopolitics. Despite facing a significant cost of living crisis, Erdogan's unexpected strong showing, combined with his coalition's victory in the parliamentary elections, has bolstered the veteran leader's campaign. Erdogan and his conservative Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP), along with the nationalist MHP and other allies, have emphasized stability as a key reason to vote for him.

The voting process commenced at 8 a.m. (0500 GMT) and is scheduled to conclude at 5 p.m. (1400 GMT). The expected timeline indicates that the outcome will start to become apparent by early evening local time. Reports suggest that polling stations witnessed quieter scenes compared to two weeks ago, when the voter turnout stood at 89%. Another crucial aspect lies in the voting behavior of Turkey's Kurdish population, which comprises about one-fifth of the country's population.

During the first round, the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party endorsed Kilicdaroglu. However, following his efforts to appeal to nationalist voters, the party did not explicitly name him and instead urged voters to reject Erdogan's "one-man regime."

A long-standing democratic tradition and a nationalist sentiment have played significant roles in shaping Turkey's political landscape. Erdogan's fusion of religious and national pride has garnered support from pious Turks who previously felt marginalized in a secular Turkey. Despite facing challenges such as a failed coup and corruption scandals, Erdogan has maintained a loyal following. Nicholas Danforth, a Turkey historian and non-resident fellow at think tank ELIAMEP, observed, "Erdogan has fused religious and national pride, offering voters an aggressive anti-elitism." He further stated that many people approve of Erdogan's vision for the country, acknowledging his strong leadership and clear agenda.

Erdogan's tenure has witnessed an erosion of liberal voices and critical perspectives, as he has consolidated control over most of Turkey's institutions. Human Rights Watch, in its World Report 2022, highlighted that Erdogan's government has set back Turkey's human rights record by decades. The incumbent president's dominance has been challenged by factors such as the devastating earthquakes that struck southern Turkey, claiming the lives of over 50,000 people. However, despite initial expectations, Erdogan's AKP remained dominant in the region during the elections held on May 14.

If Erdogan succeeds in winning the runoff, it would largely be due to the decline in prosperity, equality, and the ability of Turks to meet their basic needs, with inflation peaking at 85% in October of the previous year. Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant, has vowed to reverse many of Erdogan's domestic, foreign, and economic policies. Additionally, he aims to revert to the parliamentary system of governance that Erdogan replaced with an executive presidential system in a narrowly passed referendum in