ERBIL, Kurdistan Region—Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said once again last week that his government could provide Kurdistan Region’s civil servant salaries if the Kurds hand over their oil to the central government.

He expressed for the second time his surprise at why Erbil was not able to pay its employees.

With that statement he appeased members of his own State of Law coalition and added fuel to anti-government sentiments in the Kurdish region.

Statements and counterstatements from Iraqi and Kurdish politicians aside, there still remains the question of whether Nechirvan Barzani and Abadi whose governments are facing serious financial challenges be able to reach agreement?

At the end of January Barzani himself led a high-level Kurdish delegation to Baghdad where he met with Abadi and the two discussed ways to overcome their differences and future budgetary and financial cooperation.

That was to move from two years of stalemate, but no sooner had the Kurdish delegation returned to Erbil than the Iraqi premier attacked the Kurdish region’s financial and oil policy at a press conference in Germany.

Muthana Amin, a Kurdish Islamic Union MP in Baghdad believes that Abadi is being honest in his statements and that he is truly unable to provide Kurdistan Region’s salaries. Abadi speaks based on Baghdad’s own budget for 2015 and 2016, says Amin, which leaves no room for manipulation.

Amin says that an oil agreement signed between the two in late 2014 stipulates that Erbil hands over 550,000 barrels of oil in return for 17 percent of Iraq’s federal budget.

“That’s why Abadi uses that kind of language now,” Amin told Rudaw.

Some local observers of the political row between Erbil and Baghdad believe that the situation has come to a point where both sides will most likely continue their independent oil sales and that the sharp exchange of words is just for public consumption.

Amin Bakir, an MP of the Change Movement (Gorran) believes that the central government is not willing to seek a new agreement with Erbil and that Abadi has made it clear he wants to sort things out with Erbil through the oil agreement of two years ago.

Others think that there hasn’t been any substantial change in Baghdad’s policies towards the Kurdistan Region despite the positive welcome Abadi received from the Kurds as he replaced Nouri Maliki who was blamed for freezing Erbil’s budget.

Ashwaq Jaff, an MP from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) says that it is unwise to expect any changes in Abadi’s approach because “Abadi was once the mind behind Maliki’s policies and decisions,”

Jaff said that Abadi had started his speech in parliament last week with an attack on the Kurdistan Region “when in fact many Iraqis know that he cannot afford to pay Erbil’s salaries anyway,”

Kurdish leaders said last year that they handed over to Baghdad the agreed amount of oil at the Turkish port of Ceyhan for months, but Baghdad still refused to send the revenues, refusing to take into account disruption in oil exports and attacks on the region’s pipelines.

During their recent visit to Baghdad the Kurdish delegation sought to secure payments for Kurdish farmers who have sold their wheat products to the government.

According to Amin, Abadi admitted to owing the Kurdish region that money, but adding that he could only send the payment when his government had the money to spare.

“Therefore, giving back the oil to Baghdad isn’t really going to change anything,” said Amin. “The sales will happen through SOMO and that way the central government will keep the Kurdish region under its control.”

Rudaw