A day after a worrying escalation in violence between Hezbollah and Israel in a disputed border area near Lebanon, there is a relieving but tentative calm. Yesterday morning, Hezbollah attacked an Israeli military convoy, killing two Israeli soldiers. Israel responded by shelling southern Lebanon, killing a Spanish UN peacekeeper. Everyone was nervous that another conflict like the devastating 2006 war between Israel and Lebanon could erupt.

But today, many of those fears are on hold. There has been no new fighting. And while Israel made a strong statement to the United Nations that it would defend itself against Hezbollah, neither side appears interested in escalating the conflict any further. According to Israel’s defense minister, Hezbollah even went so far as to send Israel a message specifically stating that it didn’t want the fighting to get worse. Hezbollah may have just been retaliating for an Israeli airstrike last week that killed several senior Hezbollah members and an Iranian general, and wanted the fighting to stop there.

Given the current chaos in the Middle East, and elevated tensions between Israel and Iran, however, small skirmishes like the ones yesterday could easily spiral out of control. In 2006, 1,000 Lebanese civilians were killed and a million were made refugees.

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