World powers seek nuclear deal with Iran at Vienna talks
The five permanent member nations of the UN Security Council plus Germany – known as the P5+1 – will push for Iran to scale back its nuclear programme to a level that would render it virtually impossible for Tehran to produce an atomic bomb.
For its part, Iran – which says its nuclear programme is only aimed at producing energy – wants painful Western economic sanctions lifted and a recognition of its "right" to pursue a nuclear programme for peaceful purposes.
An accord could put Iran and the West on the road to normalised relations after a 35-year-long suspension of diplomatic ties with Washington.
"There's still a big gap. We may not be able to get there," US President Barack Obama said of the talks last Sunday.
But not everyone wants a deal. Hardliners in both the United States and Iran are pressuring their negotiators not to make too many concessions.
And the Sunni Gulf monarchies are uneasy about any US rapprochement with Shiite powerhouse Iran.
Iran's archfoe Israel is also nervous about the talks, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying he will not accept any deal that he believes compromises his country's safety in the face of calls for the destruction of Israel by Iranian hardliners. He has left open the possibility of Israel taking unilateral military action against Iran's nuclear sites.
Talks ongoing
On November 24 last year, after the moderate Hassan Rohani was elected as Iran's president, Iran and the P5+1 secured an interim, one-year agreement after Obama initiated secret discussions with Iran on a deal in exchange for limited sanctions relief.
The interim deal and Obama's September 2013 phone call with Rohani – the
highest-level contact between the two countries since 1979 – have been the high
points of rapprochement to date. And what appears to be a shared US-Iranian interest in defeating the extremist Sunni Islamic State group has been raised only tangentially on the sidelines of the talks.
However, the negotiating parties missed a July 20 deadline for reaching a comprehensive accord, giving themselves four more months – a deadline that expires next Monday.
US Secretary of State John Kerry, due back in Vienna later this week, said at the time that the talks were "the best chance we've ever had to resolve this issue peacefully".
And now, says chief US negotiator Wendy Sherman, it is "time to finish the job".
Some progress has been made in agreeing on altering a reactor being built at Arak, finding a different use for the Fordo facility, which lies under a mountain to protect it from air attack, and allowing more inspections.
But the sticking point remains agreeing on acceptable levels of enrichment, which renders uranium suitable for power generation and making nuclear medicines – but which also, at high levels of purity, can produce a nuclear weapon.
Iran wants a massive increase in the number of enrichment centrifuges to make reactor fuel, it says. The West wants the number of centrifuges slashed, saying Iran has no such need at present.
Other thorny issues are the duration of the accord and the pace at which sanctions are lifted, an area in which Iranian expectations are "excessive", one Western diplomat said.
"They want everything all at once, and this is not realistic," said the diplomat, who is involved in the talks.
Another extension?
Given the differences that remain between the sides, many analysts expect another extension of the deadline for a deal.
"There is virtually no possibility that a complete deal will be concluded by November 24," former top US diplomat on non-proliferation Robert Einhorn, now an expert with the Brookings Institution, told AFP.
"I think they'll agree to extend the interim arrangements for several more months."
But the alternative – walking away – would be "catastrophic", Arms Control Association analyst Kelsey Davenport said.
"Given the political capital that both sides have invested ... it would be foolish to walk away from the talks and throw away this historic opportunity," Davenport told AFP.
For now, officials insist that they remain focused on the deadline.
"An extension is not, and has not been, a subject of conversation at this point," a senior US official said late on Monday.
And another extension also carries risks, among them increasing the likelihood of Republicans pushing for fresh US sanctions – something that could prompt Iran to walk away from the negotiating table.
(FRANCE 24 with AFP and AP)
