Many analysts in Turkey were pretty convinced that the Syrian army would give in in a short while given the defections and its sectarian nature of its command structure. After all nearly 2/3rds of the people were Sunnis and they were expected to oppose the “minority regime”. Now they are extending their previous deadlines. As the Syrian army proves to me more resilient than expected, the Turkish administration began to complain for being left alone in shouldering the increasing refugee problem and finding it hard meeting internal criticism of its ardent commitment to the Syrian opposition.
One major reason for the Syrian army to hold on is the nature of the opposition (labeled by some as “fundamentalists or jihadists” who are accused of gross human rights violations that match that of the government forces) forces that scare a number of peoples that have heretofore supported the Assad regime for its secular character and the economic advantages made available to them. These groups see supporting the government as a matter for survival.
It is obvious that the Syrian army units are better equipped and trained compared to most of the irregulars of the Free Syrian Army. If the army units succeed in preserving their cohesiveness, some analysts believe, they can resist the opposition or even triumph over them. Given the fact that Iran, Russia and China is there to help, this likelihood is seriously discussed in different circles. Another reason why individual defections did not turn into mass action is that highly trained and disciplined professional units are paired up with drafted soldiers that come from social cohorts that see their fortunes with the government.

The strongest side of the Syrian army is its armored forces and the artillery. Trained and equipped to fight against a likely Israeli aggression the mechanized forces and supporting artillery is capable of “softening” rival targets and rounding them up with the help of the infantry provided by the Republican Guard and loyal militia. Unfortunately neither of the conflicting sides doesn’t worry much about the people that are liquidated in the process; after all civilians are considered to be “collateral damage”.
In need for more foot soldiers the government called in the reserves and organized new irregulars. The Syrian army is also employing pro-government militia called the “shabiha” that are accused of committing some of the most brutal atrocities of the conflict. The way this civil war goes indicates the fact fighting will continue even after the Assad regime falls. The ‘shabiha’ is largely drawn from the ruling Alawite community that is stated to constitute roughly 12% of the population.

Despite the fact that the present Syrian government is brutal and has no limits in violating human rights so it will vanish sooner or later is mitigated by the ongoing support of the Alawites, non-Muslims, integrated Sunnis and the aloofness of the Kurds. This crucial support that is still intact help prolongs the life of the existing central authority. Furthermore the West (the USA and the EU, Israel on the side) is reluctant for a fast regime change for two reasons. They do not want to be drowned in the unending power struggles of the Middle East (or the Muslim world) as they have in Afghanistan and Iraq. Secondly they do not want to engage in a global power struggle in Syria with other major contending powers like China and Russia. These factors increase the survival of the Damascus government for some more time to come.
However the simple fact that the same government is fighting with its people on the outer districts of Damascus and the second biggest city of Aleppo, it has lost a lot as it is. Loss of any of these cities will be the declaration of the loss of the Assad regime. Another loss will be turning these ancient cities into dirt if it is impossible to reclaim them. Cutting the water supplies of Aleppo is a step towards total disengagement of the government from its people.



On the other hand the rebels are doing similar things like destroying supply lines by which the army and the supporting factions make use of. The anxiety of survival has turned the civil war into carnage.
In the meantime the rebels are getting more adapt in destroying armored vehicles by roadside bombs and rocket-propelled grenades. The Syrian army is getting out vintage armor of the post-World War II era like T-54 and T-55 tanks. The major reason why more advanced weaponry like the T-72 tanks are withdrawn from the battle zone is preparation for a final showdown that must be won at all cost.
Of course the biggest advantage of the government forces is the air power; war planes and helicopter. But experts are predicting that sooner or later the rebels will acquire anti-aircraft weapons. When they do, the procuring side will teach them how to down aircraft that can change the course of the civil war.
In short, nothing is certain on the Syrian theater. There are no reliable scenarios; improvisation rule the day. But one thing is obvious: battle for Syria will continue even after the Assad regime is brought down.


Prof. Dr. Doğu Ergil is a Professor of political Science in Fatih University \ Turkey, and also an expert on the Kurdish Question, and he is one of the well-known authors in Turkey.