President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to Israel on June 25 was arranged several months ago but new developments like downing of the Turkish jet made it all the more important given Russia’s support of the incumbent Syrian administration. Observers tell us that both Israel and Russia have different agendas in the region yet they have common interests that make them avoid any major confrontation.
One location that both countries are interested in Azerbaijan. Israel just like Russia is selling substantial arms to this country that is building up for a possible military action against Armenia to recover its lost territory still under Armenian occupation. Israel is said to have acquired at least one air base from Azerbaijan from which it carries out reconnaissance operations into Iran. The base may even be used as a jumping board for future attacks to debilitate Iran’s developing nuclear capabilities.
Azerbaijan and Armenia are technically in a state of war, yet both Israel and Russia are in good terms with these countries. Their interests do not conflict. Iran is Israel’s nightmare but Russia does not want any country to threaten Iran’s unity. They also have similar interest in Syria although they have different agendas.
Vladimir Putin has always regretted that the Soviet system has lost its integrity as a world power that kept the global balance of powers intact. Hence a countervailing power center is needed to balance off unilateral American power and influence that has made inroads into Russia’s security zones in the Baltics, East Europe and in Asia. In this sense bot the USA and NATO are culprits of the dismantling of the Soviets that Mr. Putin longs for and the encirclement of present Russian Federation. Hence they are Russia’s adversaries. That is why he sees his country’s support of both Iran and Syria as a part of maintaining Russian power and containing that of the USA.
Is present Russia an imperialist power as the former Soviet Union? It is not; but Putin’s aim is not getting hold of or dominating these two countries. He simply does not want Western, particularly American, domination over them that curtail Russian security and economic interests. Furthermore, Western (especially American) dislike in the Arab/Muslim world at the popular level has strengthened Russia’s hand that posed as the defender of the victimized Muslim countries by Western colonialism and continuing trends of manipulation.
Observing its influence in the northern part of East Europe, Central Asia and the Caucasus we can safely state that Russia is the dominant power in these theaters. But she wants to exert her influence on other areas where the U.S. power is waning and a new game plan is to be made. One such area is the Middle East and the Mediterranean basin.
The Arab Spring and the revolutionary zest it has created is not pro-American and Russia is happy about it because this antagonism draws away the attention of the USA from areas where Russia wants to have a strong presence. That is why Russia supports both Iran and Syria. Obviously Russian rulers are not very attracted to the government of these countries but as long as they remain at odds with the USA they serve the interests of the Russian Federation.
However with each passing day the Syrian regime/government is losing its capability to stay in power. Then both Russia and Israel have two options: either to support the Assad regime no matter what and become very unpopular or to make sure that a radical Sunni regime/government does not come to power that could form a strong alliance with other radical Sunni forces in the Middle East such as al-Qaeda, Hamas and Muslim Brothers.
For Israel the present Syrian government has two merits: 1) It is predictable in the sense that it will never take on Israel as a military opponent. 2- Its Alewi minority government blocks Sunni domination in the country and prevents the formation of a radical Sunni alliance in the region. So as long as Syria does not become Iran’s satellite, Bessar Assad may remain in power.
However both Russia and Israel are realizing that the chances of Assad’s rule are diminishing. Their next best option is to help craft a moderate Sunni government/regime on which Russia’s leverage will remain as her interests are catered for such as its present military bases.
For Israel, how the new Syrian government treats its own people is not that important. Israel’s security must be catered for. The impression that has emerged out of the last Israeli-Russian summit is that both of these countries want to be in the designing process of the “day after” following the demise of the Assad government. If not, they will go on supporting the present Syrian regime as long as it is possible.


Prof. Dr. Doğu Ergil is a Professor of political Science in Fatih University \ Turkey, and also an expert on the Kurdish Question, and he is one of the well-known authors in Turkey.