Mostafa-Elwi Saif is Professor and Chairman of Department of Political Science at Cairo University. He is a Member of Shoura Council (Parliament) 2004 – present. President, Arab Council of Thought, the Gulf Center for Strategic Studies, London, Cairo and Manama. 2005 – Present. President, Committee for the Promotion to the Rank of Associate Professorship, Political Science and Public Administration, Supreme Council for Egyptian Universities. Member of the board of directors the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs (ECFA). We contacted the Professor Elwi Saif to discuss the current situation in Syria and he replied to our questions in an exclusive interview to Gulan Magazine as the following:

* First of all; in your view, how do you see the changes in Middle East and Syria is becoming dangerous?
- Yes it’s the most risk full and dangerous case among if you compared with the other Arab countries which have had revolutions on the 2011-2012 the most dangerous case is Syria and one of the factors behind this conclusion is the length of time they crisis for Syrians has been there for more than one year and it’s not yet over and one more indicator is the liberal violence used in the Syrian case which has been much more that the liberal violence that used in the other Arab countries including Libya so the time frame the liberal violence and apparently there is a third dimension in the case of Syria which makes it more different which is seemingly there are revolutionaries and some people who are still supporters of the Assad regime so this is why the insensitive confidence of Syria has been much more serious than that of Libya or Yemen or Egypt or Tunisia so this is why it has taken such long time and the number of people killed or injured is much larger than any other Arab country so this shy the after math of the revolution is I think the Syrian society and the Syrian politics will witness and experience much more to found the change than the one that is known in the other Arab countries.

* The violence of Syrian regime against its people is reaching the level of genocide; this comes after Assad’s promise to the Russian foreign minister to stop the violence, why Assad is applying genocide on its nation?
- It’s a very strange way of dealing with crisis it seemingly not yet realized that the violence he is using will not put in hand peacefully the pear to the crisis that his regime experiencing nowadays. So it seems to me that there is no crisis that solved in the case of Syria I think there is nothing like crisis management, crisis management awareness, there is no crisis management philosophy there is no crisis management system this is why Syria has used much higher level of violence against the people hoping to end the crisis but apparently these crises can never be dialed exclusively to violence this the lesson that is not yet grown by Assad and its regime and Syria.

* Assad's regime are attacking public services as you see water and electricity and this is a disaster for the people in this cold winter, until when the international community is going to accept this violence?
- The international community is taking a different position on the Syrian case compared to the position that was taken in the Libyan case and perhaps the reason for that the positions of both china and Russia both are permanent members of security council and both enjoying good relation with Syrian regime and for country like Russia Syria is the only Arab county which have too found good relation with Russia and if Syria is gone I think there will be problem with Russian presence and influence in the Arab World because Syria is the last shelter for Russia and its also a part of the game between both Russia and china on the one hand and west.

* The international community wants to agree to let Assad to leave peacefully the authority, on the other hand Russia tries to persuade Assad to step down from the authority, to what extend Russia will be successful?
- Nothing impossible in politics as a political scientist we have learned from the very beginning that nothing impossible in politics, but I don’t think that there is a high possibility that Assad could manage to step down which has no implications for the future because of what he has done to his people I think has went far beyond the limits of the situation that could have done accepted by the minority of the Syrian population. I think the train has already departed and it will be a little bit difficult for him to comply with the Russian offer that he could go out the power safely and peacefully.

* The whole world is reaching to the fact that the Syrian regime neither can make reforms nor can step down peacefully how is it possible to rescue the Syrian nation?
- I don’t know really, the absence of the regional and international positions against what is going on in Syria I don’t know how the parts of the crisis of Syria could reach the end I don’t know.

* Do you expect international community to intervene by military means?
- By majority in people’s assembly its theoretically possible in the security council I don’t think that could be possible but it could be done through the people’s assembly but as you know the people’s assembly’s resolutions are not the same like the security council it’s not obligatory for Syria or for any other country to implement such decisions into force or to enforce them so the resolution could come out of the meeting of the general assemble of the UN reflecting the majority opinion of the international community that even if this happens it could not be so easy to put into work it will have a political but not a legal implication.

* Do you think that the Kurds could be used in this situation?
- I think it’s going to be very difficult because I don’t know whether the Kurds are integrated to the army or not if they don’t I don’t think that is going to be easy for him to use them against the rest of the Syrian people but if they are in the army yes it could be used, I don’t have any information about this.

* Last Question: To what extend the changes of Assad’s regime may have reactions in the whole area?
- It’s going to have a very important and strong impact because Syria is not Libya. Syria in terms of the geographic position and the strategic significance of Syria as a major player of the Arab Israeli politics or Arab Israeli conflict as one of the most important Arab countries and enter Arab politics at the certain times serious problems with Saddam not necessarily nowadays but I think in the past because Syria is a major player in any issue of inter Arab politics and especially in the Sham submission which is the location of the Arab Israeli conflict so at the end of the conflict Syria will have much greater implications for the whole region than countries like Tunisia or Libya.


Transcription: Mahmud Samih