By Alexander Whitcomb

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - The Kurdistan Region Statistics Office (KRSO) expects the release of a new Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figure by the end of July.

The last survey was conducted in 2011, when it was determined that the region’s economic activity amounted to $20 billion. A year before, the KRG claimed 5.2 million people lived in the region.

If Kurdistan were a country it would rank as the 103rd biggest economy in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2011 GDP index. It would come in above Nepal (a country of 27.2 million people) and Zambia (13.6 million), but below Estonia and Trinidad and Tobago (both 1.3 million).

This said, a prominent business figure working in Kurdistan expressed doubts about the past calculations. “These numbers are not reliable,” he said, “as they can’t get an accurate account of the hugely important ‘grey economy.’”

The grey economy is an informal economy of unrecorded cash transactions. A substantial volume of businesses are able to circumvent the already limited tax code in the country, so most economic activity lies “off the books.” This makes it extremely difficult to calculate GDP, along with a range of other information about the economy.

The situation has not been helped by budget cuts in Baghdad, as Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki piles the pressure on Erbil by cutting off federal funding.

KRSO President Serwan Muhammed Muhialdeen claims that almost half of the office’s $8.6 million dollar budget will be affected by cuts. The remaining funds will cover salaries, but little more. This is catastrophic for the office, as rigorous studies are extremely resource-intensive, not to mention time consuming.

There is some cooperation with the central government. The KRSO cooperates with the Central Statistics Office in Baghdad, from whom it receives funding for special surveys. A recent example is a project to collect tourism industry data.

But for help with some of its most important research, the office looks to international organizations and private companies. Both the GDP and a labor survey, due at the end of the year, will be completed with the assistance of the US-based RAND corporation.

A socio-economic survey with the World Bank is expected next March. UNICEF is working to complete a new round of surveys focusing on women and children, and the United Nations Development Program is launching its first ever “Crime and Victimization” survey in Kurdistan.

Dr. Jamal Ameen, a senior statistician at the region’s Ministry of Planning and professor of statistics in the UK, stresses that Kurdistan is still young and changing rapidly. Slowly but surely, he believes, their data are rising to “global standards,” aided by these partnerships with international organizations.

He notes that the KRG has a $100 million fund to send students and government employees abroad for advanced degrees in fields like statistics. When they return, as they are contractually obliged to, it is hoped they will bring cutting edge knowledge and methodology.

The professor knows solid numbers are important to bring international investment and attention. Outsiders will need reliable facts to measure the incredible progress the Kurds are making -- almost entirely by themselves. -

Rudaw